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Seminar on “Bi-annual Economic State & Future Outlook of Bangladesh Economy-Private Sector Perspective”
Due to recent reciprocal tariff measures imposed by the USA along with global political instability, deterioration of domestic law and order situation, a decline in private sector credit flow, uncertainty in energy supply to industries, and widespread corruption, the growth of the private sector has not been improved substantially.
Against this backdrop, DCCI President Taskeen Ahmed expressed that Bangladesh requires some additional time to adequately prepare for its LDC graduation, he said this at a seminar on “Bi-annual Economic State & Future Outlook of Bangladesh Economy-Private Sector Perspective” organized by Dhaka Chamber of Commerce & Industry (DCCI) on 24 August 2025 at DCCI auditorium. Dr. Monzur Hossain, Member (Secretary), General Economics Division, Bangladesh Planning Commission, GoB attended the seminar as the Chief Guest.
In his keynote presentation, DCCI President Taskeen Ahmed shed light on the global economic situation, monetary policy, inflation, private and foreign investment, agriculture, industry and service sectors, CMSMEs, ICT, energy and power, logistics infrastructure, skills development, and the financial sector covering the January–June period of FY 2024–25. He noted that due to a significant rise in tariffs and trade barriers, global economic growth has slowed down, with forecasts projecting global GDP growth at only 2.3% in 2025. Consequently, most economies are expected to experience further slowdown compared to last year.
Considering the multidimensional challenges of LDC graduation, the DCCI President opined that Bangladesh should defer graduation for at least three years to enhance competitiveness, implement a strong transition strategy, and update relevant policies. He also stressed that corporate tax, especially for non-listed companies, should be more competitive to encourage more investment.
Taskeen Ahmed further stated that private investment has dropped to 22.48% of GDP in FY 2025, the lowest in the last five years. To restore investors’ confidence, he emphasized the importance of ensuring stability in the banking sector, political stability, and removing bureaucratic bottlenecks, which would improve the ease of doing business. On international trade, he highlighted that while Bangladesh’s exports declined by 3.09%, imports surged by 46.8% which is a bad sign for our economy.
To accelerate exports, he called for value addition, diversification, exploring new markets, strengthening supply chain connectivity, and enhancing multilateral trade diplomacy. Although the US has reduced tariffs on Bangladeshi products from 35% to 20%, we cannot be self-contended with this margin. He said, our government should strive for more tariff cut which would increase our export competitiveness in global trade. To increase our export capability, DCCI President suggested a stronger focus on producing high-quality products, long-term strategic planning, uninterrupted energy supply, building a robust buyer network, and ensuring ESG compliance. He also mentioned sectoral export performance such as leather exports declined by 1.67% to USD 567.78 million, pharmaceutical exports dropped by 15.88% to USD 98.74 million, while light engineering exports increased by 12.40% to USD 285.49 million in the second half of FY 2025.
In CMSME sector, loan disbursement fell by 23.6% in Q1 (Jan–Mar) compared to the previous quarter. In order to improve this situation, he called for targeted policy support—including fiscal incentives, reliable energy, affordable financing, stable exchange rates, and simplified compliance—to reduce costs and increase competitiveness. Taskeen Ahmed also proposed lowering lending rates, which had risen from 11.52% in June 2024 to 12.11% in May 2025.
Speaking as the chief guest, Dr. Monzur Hossain, Member (Secretary), General Economics Division, Bangladesh Planning Commission, GoB said that it is a matter of relief that our macro-economy has shown some stability with foreign reserves reaching USD 30 billion. Though inflation rate has slowed down, due to rising rice prices it still remains a concern. If we can control the rice prices, we believe the inflation would come down significantly.
Dr. Monzur emphasized the need to examine whether high lending rates alone, or an overall lack of an investment-friendly environment, is discouraging overall investment. Inflation control is crucial but it should not come at the expense of declining investment, he added. He stressed that boosting private sector credit flow is indispensable to revive growth. Dr. Monzur also suggested leaving foreign exchange rates more market-driven rather than through central bank intervention. He also reiterated that the government views LDC graduation positively but emphasized the need for stronger preparedness and productivity enhancement. He called for restructuring the banking sector and focusing on sustainable economic transformation.
Dr. Mustafizur Rahman, Distinguished Fellow, Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) stated that although inflation has declined, the overall price level still remains high, eroding consumers’ purchasing power. He said that the RMG sector in our country has come this far by enjoying bonded warehouse and bank-to-bank LC facilities. He underscored the importance of extending these same facilities to other promising export sectors which would expand Bangladesh’s export basket. He expressed concern over lack of strong anti-corruption measures and noted weak progress in digitalization, which has kept the tax-to-GDP ratio low. He called for mobilizing domestic savings and increasing tax revenue, emphasizing that heavy reliance on loans to finance the ADP is unsustainable. He also recommended seeking an LDC graduation deferral if needed, while simultaneously enhancing the business environment and skills development, particularly for SMEs.
Dr. A.K. Enamul Haque, Director General, Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS) said that the economy is performing relatively well considering the strong headwinds but it is not ideal for long-term sustainability. He stressed the urgent need to fight corruption, noting that punishment through transfers alone is not enough to discourage corruption. Rather he urged for behavioral change. He observed that import growth is outpacing exports, and money laundering opportunities in Western countries are diverting trade. He said agriculture growth is weak and must be aligned more closely with industrial growth. He also highlighted the need to expand the tax base beyond the current 2.3 million taxpayers.
Mahmud Salahuddin Naser, Director (Research), Monetary Policy Department, Bangladesh Bank said that although businesses claim monetary policy is too tight, the central bank is working to ensure a conducive environment for the private sector. He emphasized that lending rates may be reduced once inflation comes down further. He pointed to energy shortages and deteriorating law and order as additional factors holding back investment, not just high interest rates.
Nawshad Mustafa, Director, SME & Special Programmes Department, Bangladesh Bank said that the investment climate of last year was not favorable due to reduced capital machinery imports, the July movements, and floods. To create a conducive investment climate, the central bank, along with commercial banks and development partners, are working together. He stressed the importance of digital loan disbursement to reduce costs, cluster-based SME development, and a change in perspective towards SME financing.
Md. Rabiul Islam, Economics Officer, South Asia Department, Bangladesh Resident Mission, Asian Development Bank (ADB) stressed on enhancing trade connectivity, reducing transport costs, and giving SMEs access to global export markets. He also called for greater use of man-made fibers in RMG, adherence to standards in leather, and developing other promising sectors.
Members of the DCCI Board of Directors and relevant stakeholders were also present during the seminar.
Published on: 2025-08-24