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DCCI expresses concern over potential economic impact on Bangladesh amid US-Israel-Iran conflict
Dhaka Chamber of Commerce & Industry (DCCI) expresses a grave concern regarding the current geopolitical tension and military conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran, which is already starting to cause a turbulence in the global energy market, trade routes and financial system. Bangladesh being a highly import-dependent economy-is very susceptible to external shocks as a result of such conflicts. The conflict has largely destabilized the energy market and maritime commerce across the globe. Oil prices in the international market have gone beyond USD 100 per barrel due to the supply being cut in the Middle East which contributes to a large proportion of the oil and LNG exports in the world.
With a continuous rise in oil prices worldwide, DCCI cautions that the external sector in Bangladesh might be under extreme strain. It is estimated that every USD 10 increase in global oil prices could elevate the monthly import bill of Bangladesh by about USD 70-80 million, and this would lead to the expansion of the trade deficit. Besides increasing energy price, the war has interfered with major shipping routes especially the Strait of Hormuz which is the route of almost 20% of global oil and gas supply. Such a long-term interference can greatly raise the freight rate, insurance cover and delivery periods of import and export of Bangladesh.
The export-driven industries in Bangladesh particularly RMG industry will be exposed to an increase in logistics cost, delay in supply chain and the shipping risks. Further, the export of Bangladesh is also falling over the past 7 months because of domestic political and economic obstacles. Although uncertainty prevails on the global front, there has been some short-term relief in terms of the energy supply in Bangladesh as per the recent development. More than 10 vessels with LNG, LPG, diesel, and other fuel have arrived at Chattogram Port, contributing to stabilize the immediate energy supply situation in the country.
Nevertheless, Dhaka Chamber warns that the situation is extremely unpredictable. In case of this conflict escalate or expand, Bangladesh might start experiencing a series of macroeconomic problem, such as the escalating fuel and electricity production price, the high inflation rate caused by the high cost of transportation and production, the strain on foreign exchange reserve, and the possibility of the interruption of remittance flow from the Middle East.
Considering such threats, DCCI calls on the government to develop active policy measures in order to protect the economy including build-up of strategic fuel reserve, diversification of the energy sources of import, ensuring smooth supply chain logistics and the close liaison between the government agencies, financial institutions and the business community. DCCI also emphasizes the importance of diplomatic efforts to promote global peace and stability as the long-lasting geopolitical conflicts can be extremely dangerous not only to the global trade but also to the economic stability of developing nations like Bangladesh.
Published on: 2026-03-11